Former Representative JD Hayworth is moving backwards in the polls, and not just against Senator McCain. According to Rasmussen Reports, the latest polling shows Democrat Rodney Glassman of Tucson ahead of Hayworth by 5 points.
Likely Voters in Arizona
Monday, August 02, 2010
Incumbent Republican John McCain runs nearly 20 points ahead of his likeliest Democratic challenger, former Tucson Vice Mayor Rodney Glassman, in Arizona’s race for the U.S. Senate.
A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Arizona shows that McCain now leads Glassman 53% to 34%. Eleven percent (11%)
prefer some other candidate in the contest, and three percent (3%) are
McCain’s strongest Republican Primary challenger, J.D. Hayworth, runs second in a match-up with Glassman. The Democrat earns 43% support,
while the former GOP congressman picks up 38% of the vote. Thirteen
percent (13%) favor someone else, and six percent (6%) are undecided.
Voters not affiliated with either major party prefer McCain over Glassman by a two-to-one margin, but they break nearly even if Hayworth
is the Republican in the race.
For Glassman or any Democratic candidate, Arizona promises to be tough electoral territory this fall, with high voter opposition to the
national health care plan and strong support for the state’s new
immigration law, despite the U.S. Justice Department challenge of it.
Arizona remains Solid GOP in the Rasmussen Reports Senate Balance of Power rankings.
Arizona’s GOP Governor Jan Brewer was struggling earlier this year but now holds a commanding lead in the campaign to keep her job.
Voters in both parties will pick their nominees in August 24 primaries.
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The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Arizona was conducted on July 29, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5
percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all
Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted byPulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
Sixty-six percent (66%) of the state’s voters favor Arizona’s new immigration law, and 59% disagree with a federal appeals court judge’s decision to put
portions of the law on hold until all court challenges can be heard.
McCain, an outspoken proponent of the law, earns strong backing from those who support it and those who oppose the judge’s ruling. Glassman,
who opposes the law, gets equally high support from the smaller groups
who are against it and agree with the judge.
McCain, who was first elected to the Senate in 1986, is viewed Very Favorably by 20% of Arizona voters and Very Unfavorably by 25%.
For Hayworth, Very Favorables are 15% and Very Unfavorables 40%.
Nine percent (9%) hold a Very Favorable opinion of Glassman, while 19% regard him Very Unfavorably.
At this point in the campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with strong opinions more significant than the total
favorable/unfavorable numbers at this point in a campaign.
In May, McCain led Glassman 57% to 28%, and Hayworth posted a 49% to 33% lead
over the Democrat. Glassman ran only slightly stronger in April in the first Rasmsusen Reports survey of the overall Senate race.
Hayworth’s challenge of McCain has faded in recent weeks, and the longtime senator has now opened a 20-point lead in Arizona’s Republican Senate Primary race.
Late last month, with the Arizona Democratic Primary less than a month away, nearly half its prospective voters had yet to make
up their minds in the race for the party’s Senate nomination. Glassman
was the nominal leader of a four-person field with 15% of the vote.
Just 39% of Arizona voters now approve of how President Obama is doing his job, while 60% disapprove. That’s several points lower than Obama’s
approval ratings nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.